Budget Outlook 3: Public deficit of DKK 3 bn in 2013 and DKK 22¾ bn in 2014

Today the Danish Ministry of Finance presents Budget Outlook 3, December 2013, which includes a status of fiscal policy and general and central government finances. The general government deficit is estimated to DKK 3 bn in 2013 (0.2 pct. of GDP) and DKK 22¾ bn in 2014 (1.2 pct. of GDP). In 2015 the public deficit is estimated to DKK 57½ bn corresponding to 2.9 per cent of GDP.

The current estimates of public deficits show that public finances are close to balance in 2013, and that public deficits in 2013-15 are estimated to be below 3 per cent of GDP in line with the requirement in the EU-recommendation.

Excluding temporary revenues from the reallocation of pension schemes etc. public deficits are estimated to 1.9 per cent of GDP in 2013 and 3.0 per cent of GDP in 2014.

Budget Outlook 3 also shows a structural deficit of 0.5 per cent of GDP in 2014 in accordance with the limit in the Budget Law and that public deficits are reduced in line with the requirement in the EU-recommendation. Compared to the estimated structural deficit of 0.4 per cent of GDP in August the structural deficit is revised upward due to i.a. lower expected revenues from the North Sea and adjustments of the estimated tax revenues.

In 2015 the structural deficit is estimated to 0.4 per cent of GDP.

Fiscal policy and other economic policy initiatives from 2012 onwards are estimated to increase the GDP-level by 0.2 per cent in 2013 and 0.4 per cent in 2014, and thus contribute to GDP-growth by 0.2 per cent in 2014.

Based on the central government budget bill for 2014 the deficit on the central government account (the CIL-account) is estimated to DKK 13 bn in 2014 corresponding to 0.7 per cent of GDP. The deficit on the central government account is thus DKK 18¼bn lower than estimated in August, which was based on the Budget Proposal for 2014.

The estimates for the general and central government finances are based on the short term projection for the Danish economy, cf. Economic Survey , December 2013 that includes an updated assessment the economic outlook for the Danish economy towards 2015.

Read more about Budget Outlook, december 2013.